Estimation of Surface Runoff to Bahr AL-Najaf

Abstract

The estimation of the amounts of Surface runoff resulting from rainfall in the water basins is of great importance in water resources management. The study area (Bahr Al-Najaf) is located on the western edge of the plateau and the southwestern part of the city center of Najaf, with an area of 2729.4 (km²). The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) with ArcGIS software was used to simulate the runoff coming from the three main valleys (Kharr (A and B)), Shoaib Al-Rahimawi, and Maleh), that contribute the flow to the study area. The results of the model showed that the SWAT software was successfully simulating the flow conditions based on the coefficient of determination (R²), the Nash coefficient (NSE), P-factor, and R-factor for calibration (validation)  ranged between 0.59-0.62 (0.51-0.59), 0.59-0.66 (0,.60-0.62), 0.57-0.76 (0.62-0.76), and 0.58-0.74 (0.55-0.70) respectively for these valleys. Moreover, the sensitivity results revealed that the most sensitive parameters in (SWAT-CUP) SWAT calibration and uncertainty programs are the curve number (CN2) for the runoff, soil available water capacity (SOL_AWC), and Saturated hydraulic conductivity (Soil_k), according to the calibration results for the main three valleys related the study area. Three hypothesis scenarios were implemented according to the assumed amount of precipitation that would submit a water level of 16,18, and 22 (m.a.m.s.l.) which would result in filling with the bounded lake, the whole study area, and exceeding the boundaries to flood part of the ancient Najaf City.