Comparative Study for Risk Criteria of Al-Qudus Plant between the Present and Planning of MOE
Main Article Content
Abstract
The main function of a power system is to supply the customer load demands as economically as possible. Risk criterion is the probability of not meeting the load. This paper presents a methodology to assess probabilistic risk criteria of Al-Qudus plant before and after expansion; as this plant consists of ten generating units presently and the Ministry Of Electricity (MOE) is intending to compact four units to it in order to improve the performance of Iraqi power system especially at Baghdad region. The assessment is calculated by a program using Matlab programming language; version 7.6. Results show that the planned risk is (0.003095) that is (35 times) less than that in the present plant risk; (0.1091); which represents respectable improvement. This probabilistic method can also be used to find the planned risk level of every plant to be compact in the Iraqi electrical network on the future; or any other power systems; and compare it with the present criterion which is very useful to determine the necessary generation capacity expansion.
Article Details
Section
How to Cite
References
➢ Ajadi, O.B., Adekunle, A. A., and Peter, K.O., September 2012, Identification of Hazards and Risk Assessment for a 40 KVA Diesel Powered Lighting Set, Greener Journal of Science Engineering and Technological Research, Vol. 2, pp. 39-47.
➢ Cailliau, M., et al, May 2011, RES Integration and Market Design, http://www.eurelectric.org/CatPub/ Document.aspx? Folder ID=1507& Document ID =30399.
➢ Cepin, M. March 2006, Development of Risk Criteria in Nuclear Power Plants – Problems and Solutions, International Journal of Materials & Structural Reliability Vol.4, No.1, pp. 53-63.
➢ Dutta, S., and Sharma, R., .January 2012, Optimal Storage Sizing for Integrating Wind and Load Forecast Uncertainties , IEEE PES conference on innovative smart grid technologies, pp. 928-934.
➢ Ehsani, A., Karimizadeh, A., Fallahi, H., and Jalali, A., 2009, A Comparison of Deterministic and Probabilistic Methods for Determining the Required Amount of Spinning Reserve, World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology 60, pp. 38-43.
➢ Lewis, E. E., (1996)," Introduction to Reliability Engineering ", John Wiley and Sons, Inc., second edition.
➢ Luan, W. , Kheong, S.C. , and Helen, I., June 2006, Risk Assessment of Rural Diesel Generation, IEEE Power Engineering Society Meeting.
➢ M. Milligan, and B. Parsons (1997)," A Comparison and Case Study of Capacity Credit Algorithms for Intermittent Generators", National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
➢ Ning, C. N., Hsieh, C. A., Hsiao, T. Y., and Lu, C. N., June 2006, Two Application Examples of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Power System Operation", 9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems KTH, Stockholm, Sweden.
➢ Prada, J. F., July 1999, The Value of Reliability in Power Systems - Pricing Operating Reserves -, MIT Energy Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Report No. EL 99-005 WP.
➢ Republic of Iraq / Ministry of Electricity/ Training and Development Office / Generation and Production of Electrical Energy /planning section, 2011.
➢ Singh, C., May 2008, Operational Reliability: Issues, Challenges and Possibilities, Report No. 973, Beijing.
➢ Zachary, S., and Dent, C.J., February 2012, Probability theory of capacity value of additional generation, Journal of Risk and Reliability, (SAGE Publications), vol. 226, pp. 133-143.