الأساليب الحتمية والاحتمالية لتقدير احتياطي النفط في المكامن الكاربونية

محتوى المقالة الرئيسي

Jassim M. Al Said Naji
Mohammed A. Ahmed

الملخص

الدقة في تقدير احتياطي النفط مهمة جدًا وفقًا للقرارات التي ستُتخذ بناءً على هذه القيمة. ستتناول هذه الورقة تقدير احتياطي النفط باستخدام مناهج احتمالية وحتمية. نموذج الدراسة هو تكوين مشرف في حقل بزركان النفطي الواقع في محافظة ميسان جنوب العراق. يتم تمثيل النهج الحتمي بمعادلة توازن المادة بينما يتم تمثيل النهج الاحتمالي بمحاكاة مونت كارلو. البيانات المستخدمة في تطبيق معادلة توازن المادة هي فحوصات الموائع المكمنية وبيانات الضغط مع الحاجة إلى الحجم الكلي والمسامية، بينما تحتاج محاكاة مونت كارلو إلى مدخلات المعادلة الحجمية وهي المسامية وتشبع السوائل وسمك الدفع الصافي وحجم المكمن الكلي. يتم تطبيق معادلة توازن المادة كمعادلة خطية بطريقة هافلينة عودة. يتم تطبيق محاكاة مونت كارلو كمعادلة حجمية ولكن يتم نمذجة كل مدخل بصورة احصائية للحصول على أفضل قيمة. بلغت نتيجة احتياطي النفط باستخدام معادلة توازن المادة 4.368 مليار برميل من مخزون المكمن، بينما صُنفت محاكاة مونت كارلو وفقًا لتصنيف هيفنر وتومسون على أنها P90، حيث تبلغ الاحتياطيات المؤكدة 1.03279 مليار برميل من مخزون المكمن، والاحتياطيات المؤكدة والمحتملة P50 تبلغ 1.98761 مليار برميل من مخزون المكمن، والاحتياطيات المؤكدة والمحتملة P10 تبلغ 4.3694 مليار برميل من مخزون المكمن. القيم الناتجة من كلا النهجين مُحكمة للغاية، وهذا يُشير إلى جودة الإجراءات والبيانات المُستخدمة. لا يُمكن استخدام معادلة توازن المادة قبل مرحلة الإنتاج، بينما يُمكن تطبيق محاكاة مونت كارلو قبل ذلك.

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.displayStats.downloads##

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.displayStats.noStats##

تفاصيل المقالة

القسم

Articles

كيفية الاقتباس

"الأساليب الحتمية والاحتمالية لتقدير احتياطي النفط في المكامن الكاربونية" (2026) مجلة الهندسة, 32(4), ص 16–34. doi:10.31026/j.eng.2026.04.02.

المراجع

Abdulmajeed, M.N., Kadhim, F.S., and Saed, G.N., 2020. Estimation of Original Oil in Place Using Different Methods for Mishrif Formation –Amara Oil Field. Master's thesis, University of Technology, Oil and Gas Engineering Department.

Agnia, A., Algdamsi, H., Amtereg, A., Alkouh, A., and Alusta, G., 2021, Monte carlo simulation for uncertainty quantification of probabilistic original hydrocarbon in place estimation a convergence study how many samples with a particular sampler are needed, society of petroleum engineers (SPE), Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference, Abu Dhabi, UAE, SPE-207241-MS, https://doi.org/10.2118/207241-MS

Ahmed, M.A., Naji, J.M.AS., Ali, A.M., Al-Khafaje, A. Q. 2024. Asphaltene phase behavior modeling using Peng-Robinson 78A-EOS for a crude oil sample from Buzurgan Oil Field. Pet. Chem. 64, pp. 840–848. https://doi.org/10.1134/S096554412405013X.

Al Said Naji, J.M., Ahmed, M.A., Hammad, H.M., and Fadhil, A.M., 2023. Effect of using different property modelling strategies on the calculated value of the initial oil in place by volumetric method, Iraqi Journal of Oil & Gas Research, 3(2), pp. 50-62. http://doi.org/10.55699/ijogr.2023.0302.1051.

Al-Ali, M.M., Mahdi, M.M., and Alali, R.A., 2019. Microfacies and depositional environment of Mishrif Formation, North Rumaila oil field, southern Iraq. Iraqi Geological Journal, 52(2), pp. 91-104, https://doi.org/10.46717/igj.52.2.7Ms-2019-12-30

Aldarraji, M.Q., and Almayahi, A.Z., 2019. Seismic structure study of Buzurgan Oil field, Southern Iraq, Iraqi Journal of Science, vol.60, no.3, pp. 610-623, https://ijs.uobaghdad.edu.iq/index.php/eijs/article/view/703

Al-Dujaili, A. N., 2023. Reservoir rock typing and storage capacity of Mishrif Carbonate Formation in West Qurna/1 Oil Field, Iraq. Carbonates and Evaporites, 38(4), 83. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13146-023-00908-3

Al-Dujaili, A. N., Shabani, M., & AL-Jawad, M. S. 2024. Lithofacies and electrofacies models for Mishrif Formation in West Qurna oilfield, Southern Iraq by deterministic and stochastic methods (comparison and analysis). Petroleum Science and Technology, 42(13), pp. 1656-1684. https://doi.org/10.1080/10916466.2023.2168282.

Alhusseini, A.K. and Hamd-Allah, A.M., 2022. Estimation of initial oil in place for Buzurgan oil field by using volumetric method and reservoir simulation method, Iraqi Geological Journal, 55(2C), https://doi.org/10.46717/igj.55.2C.9ms-2022-08-22

Al-Ismaily, O. S., 2017. Use borehole image log technique to estimate Mishrif Reservoir Characterization in Buzurgan oilfield. Ph.D. thesis, Basrah University.

Al-Khalifa M.A., Payenberg, T.H.D., and Lang, S., 2007. An innovative approach to uncertainty assessment of hydrocarbon estimates in fluvial systems: A case study. Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)/ the Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition. SPE-108304-MS. https://doi.org/10.2118/108304-MS.

Ampomah, W., Balch, R.S., Chen, H.Y., Gunda, D., and Cather, M., 2016. Probabilistic reserves assessment and evaluation of sandstone reservoir in the Anadarko Basin. Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE). IAEE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium. SPE-179953-MS. https://doi.org/10.2118/179953-MS

Craft, B.C., and Hawkins, M.F.Jr., 1991. Applied Petroleum Reservoir Engineering, 2nd ed., Prentice Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, P. 66.

Cronquist, C., 2001. Estimation and Classification of Reserves of Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Condensate. SPE Books: Richardson, Texas, USA, SPE, P. 416.

Dake, L. P., 1978. Fundamentals of Reservoir Engineering. Elsevier, New York City, pp. 73-102.

Havlena, D., and Odeh, A.S., 1963. The material balance as an equation of a straight line. Journal Petroleum Technology, SPE-559-PA, 15(8), pp. 896–900. https://doi.org/10.2118/559-PA

Havlena, D., and Odeh, A.S., 1964. The material balance as an equation of a straight line—Part II. Field Cases, Petroleum Technology, SPE-869-PA, 16(7), pp. 815–822. https://doi.org/10.2118/869-PA.

Hefner, J.M., and Thompson, R.S., 1993. A comparison of probabilistic and deterministic reserve estimates: A case study. SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, SPE 26388, Houston, Texas, Oct 3-6.

Hussein, I. J., 2012. Building a Geological Model for the X oil field, Mishirif. M.Sc. Thesis, College of Engineering, University of Baghdad.

Idrobo, E.A., Jiménez, E.A., and Bernal, M.C., 2001. A new tool to make quick estimates of probabilistic reserves from production trends. Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)/ the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, SPE-68597-MS, Dallas, Texas. https://doi.org/10.2118/68597-MS.

Jubair, A. Q. and Hadi, F. A., 2021A. Development of 3D-geomechanical model for Buzurgan Oil Field using actual and ANN-developed synthetic Logs. American Rock Mechanics Association, Paper presented at the ARMA/DGS/SEG International Geomechanics Symposium.

Jubair, Q.A., and Hadi, F.A., 2021B. Development of 1D-synthetic geomechanical well logs for applications related to reservoir geomechanics in Buzurgan Oil Field. Iraqi Geological Journal, 54(2F), pp. 74-88, https://doi.org/10.46717/igj.54.2F.7ms-2021-12-24.

Khashman, M. A., Shirazi, H., AL-Dujaili, A. N., & Sulaiman, N. M., 2025A. Optimizing facies analysis, capillary pressure, and flow units identification of Mishrif carbonate reservoir in a selected oilfield, Southern Iraq. Petroleum & Coal, 67(2).

Khashman, M. A., Shirazi, H., and Al-Dujaili, A. N., 2025B. Comparative evaluation of productivity indicators in carbonate reservoir modeling by a case study for the Mishrif Formation in the Iraqi Buzurgan Oilfield. Discover Geoscience, 3(17). https://doi.org/10.1007/s44288-025-00118-5

Kim, J.S., Shin, H.J., and Lim, J.S., 2014. Application of a probabilistic method to the forecast of production rate using a decline curve analysis of Shale Gas Play. The International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers (ISOPE)/Twenty-fourth (2014) Conference Busan, Korea, pp. 15-20.

Komlosi Z. and Komlosi J., 2009. Application of the Monte Carlos simulation in calculating HC-Reserves. SPE 121256, EUROPEC/EAGE Annual Conference and Exhibition, pp. 8–11. Amsterdam. https://doi.org/10.2118/121256-MS.

Kosova, R., Shehu, V., Naco, A., Xhafaj, E., Stana, A., and Ymeri, A., 2015. Monte Carlo simulation for estimating geologic oil reserves. A case study from Kucova Oilfield in Albania. Journal of Muzeul Olteniei, Craiova. Oltenia. Studii și comunicări. Științele Naturii. 31(2), pp. 20-25.

Mohammed, A.I., Abdurahman, H., Ibrahim, S.D., and Adamu, B.M., 2018. Uncertainty modelling in multi-layered reserve estimation using Monte Carlo simulation, Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)/ the SPE Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition, SPE-193454-MS, https://doi.org/10.2118/193454-MS.

Schilthuis, R. J., 1936. Estimation of petroleum reserves - active oil and reservoir energy. The American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers.

Simpson, D.E., Huffman, C.H., and Thompson, R.S., 1995. Net present value probability distributions from decline curve reserves estimates. Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)/Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, SPE-30044-MS. Dallas, Texas, March. https://doi.org/10.2118/30044-MS.

Sissakian, V. K, Shihab A.T., Al-Ansari N., and Knutsson, S., 2017. New tectonic findings and its implications on locating oilfields in parts of the Gulf Region. Journal of Earth Sciences and Geotechnical Engineering, 7(3), pp. 51-75.

Tarek, A., 2001. Reservoir Engineering Handbook. 2nd edition, Gulf Professional Publishing, Butterworth-Heinemann.

Thanh, T.T., 2002. An improved method for reserves estimation. Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE). The SPE Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition, Melbourne, Australia. SPE-101939-STU. https://doi.org/10.2118/101939-STU

Turgay, I., 2014. Error Analysis on the Parameters of the Material Balance equation for synthetic gas cap reservoir, Master's thesis, Istanbul Technical University- Institute of Science and Technology, published thesis, Turkey.

Yee, C.P., 2011. Estimation of reservoir parameters using material balance method. Dissertation submitted to the PETRONAS University as a partial fulfilment of Bachelor's degree in petroleum engineering.

المؤلفات المشابهة

يمكنك أيضاً إبدأ بحثاً متقدماً عن المشابهات لهذا المؤلَّف.