تقييم التأثير التآزري للمورفولوجيا الحضرية وتلوث الهواء على الجزر الحرارية السطحية باستخدام الدمج متعدد المستشعرات والتعلم الآلي
محتوى المقالة الرئيسي
الملخص
تواجه البيئات الحضرية تحديات مناخية كبيرة نتيجة للتوسع الحضري السريع، مما يُفاقم ظاهرة الجزر الحرارية الحضرية السطحية ويزيد من مخاطرها على الصحة العامة. تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى تجاوز الأطر التقليدية القائمة على مصادر بيانات منفردة، وذلك من خلال اقتراح إطار عمل هجين يعتمد على تقنية دمج البيانات من عدة مستشعرات ضمن بيئة الحوسبة السحابية لمحرك جوجل إيرث. غطى نطاق الدراسة مدينة بغداد خلال الفترة 2018-2023، حيث تم دمج بيانات الأقمار الصناعية (لاندسات 8/9، وسنتينل-1، وسنتينل-2، وسنتينل-5P) لاستخلاص متغيرات مورفولوجية وبيئية بدقة.لضمان تمثيل دقيق للمناخ المحلي على مستوى الأحياء وتقليل تأثيرات تداخل الرادار، استخدم البحث منهجية توحيد قياسية، تلاها بناء نموذج مكاني-زماني متطور قائم على خوارزمية الغابة العشوائية لتقييم الأوزان النسبية للعوامل الحضرية المؤثرة. وقد أظهر النموذج كفاءة تنبؤية استثنائية واتساقًا إحصائيًا عاليًا، مسجلاً معامل تحديد (R² = 0.842) وخطأ معياري منخفض (RMSE = 1.007 درجة مئوية).أظهرت النتائج أن مورفولوجيا المدن (الممثلة بمؤشر المباني NDBI بنسبة 29.43%) وتدهور جودة الهواء (الممثل بتركيزات ثاني أكسيد النيتروجين بنسبة 25.38%) هما العاملان الرئيسيان في ارتفاع درجة حرارة سطح الأرض. تقدم هذه الدراسة أدلة تجريبية قوية على حدوث ظاهرة قبة الحرارة الملوثة، وتوفر لصناع السياسات أداة تحليلية فعالة لتقييم الصحة البيئية وتخطيط مدن أكثر مرونة واستدامة في مواجهة تغير المناخ الحاد.
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